Xbox Project Helix Vs. PS6 - Data Firm Reveals Its Forecasted Sales Figures For Each

We know, we know — it's way too early for anyone to be offering wholly accurate estimations on how well Xbox's Project Helix console and the PS6 will fare when they release at some point over the next few years.

There are far too many variables that could alter those potential sales figures in the lead up to launch (features, pricing, etc.), but analysis firm S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan has nevertheless provided a forecast for the two consoles based on what's happening right now in July 2026.

The report, which has been shared by GamesIndustry.biz, warns that Helix could attract a "narrower, more enthusiast-oriented audience" due to its potentially high price — partially as a result of supporting both console and PC games.

It predicts that Helix will sell 2 million consoles in its launch year, scaling to 7.3 million by 2030. However, the firm acknowledges that many decisions have yet to be made about Helix, and that the forecast could change substantially.

"The actual outcome could look very different. A fully open PC platform with Xbox branding would not really resemble a console and likely not be counted in this model.

Our forecast is functionally splitting the difference between a proper Xbox successor and an Xbox-certification program with PC OEMs, and readers should treat the post-2027 Microsoft trajectory as a range of outcomes contingent on decisions yet to be made or revealed."

As for the PS6, the firm expects it to release in 2028 and attract 4 million buyers in its first year, scaling to 17.2 million by 2030. It also acknowledges the ongoing component crisis that's affecting console makers across the industry.

"That framing does not inspire confidence for 2027 or beyond. Our forecast models a potential PlayStation 6 launch in 2028, contributing 4 million units in its first year and scaling to 17.2 million by 2030."

The goalposts are always being moved when it comes to console sales and pricing, so we reckon this forecast could change considerably over the next couple of years as Helix and the PS6 are slowly revealed in more detail.

This analysis does also talk a bit about the Xbox Series X, Series S and PS5, however, forecasting that console sales as a whole will fall by 19.5% in 2026, mainly due to higher console prices as a result of the component crisis.

It's mentioned in the report that the Xbox Series X and S are expected to sell 2.5 million consoles in 2026 followed by "a rapid wind-down toward zero thereafter", whereas the PS5 could drop to around 13.2 million this year.

An interesting "assumption" is that the component crisis will "ease sufficiently" to accommodate new consoles by 2028:

"A critical assumption underlying our forecast's recovery period later in the decade is that the component crisis eases sufficiently by 2028 to allow Sony and Microsoft to bring next-generation hardware to market at price points in the $600 to $800 range," said S&P Global Market Intelligence analyst Neil Barbour."

While there's still a lot for us to learn about the long-term future of Xbox and PlayStation consoles, these current estimates still highlight how transformative of a time we're going through when it comes to console pricing and the component crisis, and the report should prove a nice little snapshot for us to look back on years to come.

History would suggest that the PS6 will outsell Xbox Project Helix quite comfortably no matter what, but it all depends on how both companies position themselves over the next few months and years. We've already seen what happens when a console launch is botched (the Xbox One!), and it remains to be seen if it'll happen all over again.

What's your takeaway from this? Let us know down in the comments section below.