One thing that's bothering me with about the topic of Game Pass is how people can still say that the service is unsustainable.
We know that there are 15 million subscribers now. Let's say that the average price that the subscribers are paying is $10. 15 million subscribers times $10 is $150 million, and that's each month. Take that times 12 months and Microsoft will see a revenue stream of $1.8 billion each year. Now take into the fact that the growth of subscribers have been 5 million additional ones in just 5 months (from 10 to 15). Now let's say that they'll earn on average 10 million subscribers each year (because 5 million for every 5 months). That means in the coming year, the amount of subscribers will increase from 15 to 25 million. Take that times $10 again and that will be $250 million each month and $3 billion every year. Do that for another year and you'll have 35 million subscribers, $350 million in revenue every month and $4.2 billion in a year.
To put this in another perspective, in the coming three years, Microsoft will earn back the amount of money they paid for ZeniMax Media and have a lot of left over (1.8 + 3 + 4.2 = $9 billion).
Like this is easy mathematics if you just put together the numbers and facts. It's obvious that Microsoft has figured this out and that's why they aren't bothered by paying that large sum of $7.5 billion for ZeniMax. Microsoft is seriously going to earn so much money from this and how people are not getting this is beyond me.
@LtSarge some big assumptions in your easy mathematics such as future growth, as well as completely ignoring the costs of making all of the games for the service and paying third parties to put their games on. I mean how many of the current subscribers have even paid full price with the amount of offers that have been available? I'm paid up until this time next year for the grand total of £1 and there's no guarantee I'll continue to subscribe.
On the flip side I wouldn't expect any company to go down this route unless they believed they could make money at some point and if they do get near the numbers you suggested and paying full price, then that should be above the threshold for profit
Older than I care to remember but have been gaming since owning a wooden Atari 2600 and played pretty much everything inbetween.
@carlos82 You do realise that in economics we use historic patterns to predict future patterns? It's called forecast, all companies do this. To then undermine the term to "assumptions" is not correct at all.
"As of this month, Xbox Game Pass now has 15 million subscribers, up from the 10 million figure Microsoft announced in April. That's a 50 per cent increase in just five months."
Meaning 5 million subscribers in 5 months. There's no "assumption" here, it's a fact that Game Pass has 15 million subscribers now and I'm using this as a prediction for future subscriber counts. Of course this might not happen, but we're talking about the future here. Nobody knows exactly what's going to happen, but we can predict it with previous patterns and trends, as all companies do.
Also there's no way that costs for adding games on Game Pass are going to be upwards of billions of dollars. I thought that's obvious? The fact still remains that if this pattern persists, Microsoft are going to make tens of billions of dollars each year on Game Pass and they are going to be earning a profit as soon as they cross this initial threshold of losses.
It's true that Microsoft has been going hard for the €1 deals but they will eventually run out and that's when we can see the attachment rate of subscribers. But even then it's not hard to figure out that Game Pass is a much more compelling offer at €10 than buying each game for €80 next generation. As I said in another article on the site, if you are choosing to pay €80 for each game instead of investing in Game Pass then you must like wasting money in that case. Each and every business deal Microsoft has made regarding Game Pass has increased the value of Game Pass, e.g. Bethesda games and EA Play. Even if Microsoft raises the price of Ultimate to €20 that's still dirt cheap compared to buying each game separately for €80. In other words, a lot of people are going to opt for Game Pass in the future. It's literally the best deal in gaming.
@LtSarge I have read that and just because over the last 5 months there has been a huge jump it doesn't mean its going to happen in the next 5 months, the 5 after that and so on. So I'd say the tens of billions of dollars income is a very big assumption at this point. If they do get to those numbers then of course they'll be making a lot of money but at the moment that's basically almost everybody who owns an Xbox One. So either the new consoles are going to be a lot more successful or plenty of PC and mobile gamers are going to pick up the slack. As for games development costs, AAA games are getting budgets of well over $100 million these days so releasing multiple of them per year is going to be pretty expensive plus whatever deals third parties are getting to put their games on.
Gamepass is a good offer but even this year I've bought more games for my Xbox then I've played through Gamepass. For me the value in Gamepass isn't in first party AAA games as the cost between buying them and subscribing isn't that big over the year but in all the smaller indie titles and the odd third party that I wasn't sure about and getting to play them that way
Older than I care to remember but have been gaming since owning a wooden Atari 2600 and played pretty much everything inbetween.
I wonder what the breakeven point for game pass is. If we move to a situation where Microsoft third-party development is funded by game pass subscribers how many subscribers are needed?
Looks like the EA play games are available to download from the store now as part of game pass ultimate, though not all of them are showing properly unless you click on the game itself.
Nothings been added to the game pass app but hopefully it gets integrated, maybe as its own little section. The EA Play app is just showing subscription options for me.
I searched EA in the store but I don't think every game available shows up with that search so yeah, hopefully they make the whole selection a bit more visible and easier to find!
@zxSpectrum2 no idea. I know that if you have Xbox Live Gold it converts it to Ultimate. Maybe do a live chat with Microsoft, they are pretty quick and actually very helpful. It's actually shocking how good their customer service is compared to everyone else I've dealt with.
For the conversation regarding Gamepass sustainability its also important to note that a bunch of people buy more games and add one when they are in gamepass. MS gets a cut of all 3rd party sales and naturally 1st party is just gravy. MS is doing some massive investment into Xbox and Gamepass so I'll trust them when they say it's sustainable. In a year we will have a much clearer picture as we will know how much growth they get in Asian markets from xcloud. I don't believe you can get a pure xcloud gamepass subscription yet but I'd imagine it's going to be offered in Asia at the very least as that's what most people play on. I'm on GPU until 2023 and yes it was the $1 deal BUT i did have to buy the Xbox Live Gold time as well to get it so they still got a nice chunk of change from me...it wasn't just a buck.
Thanks to my nephew we discovered that you can share game pass and gold live memberships. As well as games with each other. As a result I filled both drives with games I couldn't afford to buy or maybe just wanted to try.
@zxSpectrum2 I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that it will convert regular game pass into ultimate the same way it converts gold into ultimate. I would ask @FraserG or check with Microsoft to confirm.
If people have a Lego VIP card then 2 week game pass subs are available for 250 points online.
I stopped getting Lego a while back but kept getting e mails saying I had some points left over so I got 4 weeks worth for my last 500 points
Just thought I'd let you all know in case you have some left over Lego points laying around!
It is stackable on an existing membership too, and mine came up as Ultimate game pass when I redeemed it, not sure if that's because I already have ultimate 🤷♂️
@ralphdibny Thanks for that. Haven't bought any LEGO in ages (gaming seems to be my new addiction) and my VIP points are due to expire soon. should have enough for a couple of months I think
@dmcc0 nice one, glad the info is of some use! Thankfully I haven't been too addicted to buying Lego/games lately and I'm actually getting through the games that I have bought in my past spending sprees!
Does anyone know if it's possible to:
1. go somewhere with free WiFi
2. download a Game Pass game onto my laptop
3. transfer it from my laptop to my external HD
4. transfer it from my external HD to my Xbox Series S
5. play the game?
I have limited bandwidth available at home..
Thanks in advance..!!
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Topic: The Xbox Game Pass Thread
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