Talking Point: Where Does Xbox Go Next If ActiBlizz Deal Falls Through?

Start acting like Sony and pour lots of money into exclusivity deals. Sony does it so why shouldn’t MS?

A "gamepass partnership" with Activision (like we saw with EA) would be a nice "consolation prize" for game pass subscribers and a nice "thank you" for Sony

If we're talking acquisitions, I wouldn't mind seeing something like EA? What do y'all think?

But I'm sure Microsoft could get creative and do exclusivity deals like some suggested here.

They either go after smaller publishers like Bethesda. So that would put Sega possibly on the radar due to the Rovio purchase. Square Enix would be fun but can't see it. Or they aggressively go after exclusive 3rd party deals like Sony & build up there there already owned studios. Or buy up smaller devs.

they should just buy a years timed exclusivity on call of duty games no one can stop that

they should go and hire audits and go focus on those 24 studios they own, i swear i never seen such unproductive studios in all my years gaming!!! took them 6 to 7 years to release unworthy games, i imagine xbox studios (not obsidian and turn 10 ) are eating donuts in the corners, working 1 productive hour a day!!

go and make them work, xbox is a joke now you have to man up

Well, plan B would be , buy Square, Sega, Embracer, Capcom, Konami for starters and still have lots of money left.... Lol 😆, ahw idk, just go back to the drawing board and see what else is possible.. they want mobile so probably Take2 for the Zynga part

Already seen plenty of ridiculous comments from people acting as if Microsoft will get rid of Xbox completely or that Microsft will leave the UK. It's pretty clear a lot of people don't understand business.

Microsoft will have always had a plan if the deal didn't go through.

There are almost constant reports of studio mismanagement and/or games undergoing troubled development at various Xbox-owned studios. Whether or not those reports are accurate is obviously going to vary studio to studio and also depends on who is relaying said information and where they got that information from. But if there is any truth to it, is adding more studios into the mix really going to help in that regard?

How about instead of buying up as many new studios as possible, Xbox refocuses its attention and resources into what it's already got?

Focus on making Forza Motorsport, Fable, Perfect Dark, State of Decay 3 and Everwild as good as they possibly can be. Focus on supporting Bethesda in making sure that Starfield is as good as it possibly can be. Focus on supporting Halo Infinite with a steady stream of new content.

But most of all, focus on giving your existing studios the time, resources and competent management that they need to put out great games in a healthy, safe and happy work environment.

MS currently problem is their MANY studios haven't hit the point where they are all constantly producing content.

A better short term solution would be to secure big name third party releases for gamepass. Get the new CoD on GP day 1, get armoured core 6 day 1. Basically creating a hold over of big name new titles till they can start regularly dropping first party titles

If the deal doesn’t go through you expect Xbox to go about business as normal? You mean delaying first party games whilst Phil tweets about how much he enjoys PlayStation? ***** that. I expect at the very least Xbox to be more outwardly aggressive…no more praising the competition. And talks of ‘gaming for everyone’ etc to die down a bit.
I’d want them to focus on the sinking ship that is their console…and focus on the train wreck that is their current first party studios.

One things for sure, they’re going to have to get the cheque book out now and start buying 3rd party day 1 games to fill out the next couple of months of gamepass…as as far as I’m aware, without all the activision games they have nothing ‘AAA’ after redfall till September?

They have stated multiple times they are after mobile as that's where the growth is. I believe in this week's Xboxera podcast they were talking about potential future targets abd Sega actually has a big mobile presence. So I'd say them. It definitely something with a mobile presence though.

Console market is small and stagnant so they will be looking for the big growth area's which are mobile and PC.

Hopefully put some major focus on internal management of the studios they have cuz it looks very loosey goosey

Where does Xbox Go Next if Acti-Bliz Deal Falls Through?

I will keep it brief: Xbox definitely can not go any lower than the last place they are in now, so, The only way for team Green is up, right guys? 😜🤞.

@Bleachedsmiles I think Phil may be the guy who pays the price if the deal doesn’t succeed. Yes he comes across as your mate. But let’s be real. Microsoft need someone to turn the tide.

Microsoft for the next few years will struggle to pick up some of the ridiculous fanboy suggestions here. Any of the more known studios will bring regulators back onto them. Expect small studios, maybe those who make the AA titles/indies for game pass. They are on game pass anyway so may as well try to own them.

Fight fire with fire

@abe_hikura I don't see that being possible without having to put game pass prices up, or create an additional higher tier. As they would still be third party MS would need to compensate Activision for having their games on game pass and I don't see them being able to cover what they are paying EA for EA Play and Activision at current prices. Plus Activision would need to start offering their own streaming service that could be incorporated in to game pass and there doesn't seem to be much desire from them to have their own streaming service at the moment.

The Deal is - as far as I know - blocked by the UK ONLY so far so I just think that will hurt the UK market and maybe prevent MS from offering ABK games on its Cloud service, maybe 'keep' Activision/Blizzard as the 'Publisher' for its games in the UK as a 'shell' company - especially if the EU passes it and MS/ABK win their case against the FTC in the US.

The deal has been passed pretty much everywhere else so I just think this will HURT the CMA, UK gamers, UK Tax Payers, UK Tech industry, UK gaming industry etc and could take a 'few years' to appeal - which I still 'expect' them to win because the CMA can't 'prove' MS would be in a position to 'monopolise' Cloud gaming.

MS won't own the VAST majority of Studios making Games, vast majority of IP's etc. They can ALL still 'compete' with their OWN products/Services. If Sony 'decide' to enter the Cloud market, their IP''s and Studio's would 'compete' for Subscribers too. EA, Ubisoft, TenCent, Take Two, Warner Bros, Capcom, Sega etc etc could ALL set up their OWN Sub Service to 'stream' their OWN IP's made by their OWN Studios.

Even if MS made ALL their Games Exclusively for their OWN Game Pass streaming service, so the ONLY option to play CoD via streaming was with a MS GP subscription, its no different from Disney+ owning Marvel. It doesn't stop ANY consumer from watching Marvel content on ANY device they have. It helps Disney+ compete with Netflix, Amazon Prime etc

Cloud isn't a 'fixed' platform like a Console - its accessible from MANY devices so even if you ONLY have a Samsung Smartphone or Apple iPad, you could still play these games and would 'compete' with ANY other Cloud service if others WANTED to compete.

Cloud is just an ENTRY point as most dedicated, hardcore gamers will prefer to play without the additional lag/latency and Compression artefacts streaming has, preferring the 'Native' console and/or PC options to get the full 'Premium' experience - 4k, 120fps+, lowest latency/lag etc. Not EVERY game is Streamable, and likely never will be - Series X must have 1000's of games it can play with BC vs around 250 that can be streamed - a 'limited' Library, so Hardware is likely to be the 'Premium' and 'best' way to play games.

Even if the Deal doesn't go through, I can't imagine ABK wanting to work with Sony again....

I said this elsewhere, but:

• Raising formal complaints about Tencent's recent move toward cloud gaming.
• Raising formal complaints about Sony's exclusivity deals (which are subject to regulation).
• Acquiring indie studios with IPs that have franchise potential.
• Acquiring IPs that have yet to be made into video games.

And if they're smart:

• Pushing the Series S as a "family" or "party" machine by prioritizing local co-op games.

@Kaloudz time to let the woke ones to go to bed. I'm not sure if Phil survives this or not, but the ones below him looking after studios will either increase in number and have less studio's to look after in greater detail or might be on the chopping blocks. Xbox just needs to embrace that the public will always ***** on them so become the wrestling heel n take them gloves off. Buy n close square lol. But i definitely expect CoD marketing to be with Xbox from now on. Get them maps, early access n everything else Sony got. Make Xbox the default version and port to Sony. Give Jim his nightmares of an inferior CoD!

Look inward rather than outward. Acknowledge and address the reasons why they have struggled to release 1st party games this gen and alongside that throw some more money at better exclusivity deals. Maybe when they get their own house in order they should look at a big (but not ABK big) acquisition.

@101Force I haven’t tried for awhile, but have they fixed the cloud streaming local co-op yet? I tried it once last year with mortal kombat and gang beasts with my girlfriend, and you couldn’t play local multiplayer via streaming. I’d hope they’d have worked that out by now. Still the case?

I hope they have a plan for it, because if they don't, then it's going to be hard

It's not as simple as that, @awp69. Sony can afford the luxury of third-party exclusive deals because of the player base that they enjoy. Currently the split is about 70% of players on the PlayStation, to 30% on the Xbox. So when Sony strike these exclusivity deals, the Developer is only missing out on 30% of the gaming public. For Xbox to persuade Developers to do the same, they have to pay megabucks for the privilege, and likely offer very time-limited deals too. That's why we only get a 3 month deal with S.T.A.L.K.E.R 2, and who is going to buy an Xbox over a PlayStation for that? Conversely, Sony get to permanently lock down the likes of Final Fantasy because the Developer knows they are not missing out on a large percentage of gamers, and people will buy a PlayStation to play Final Fantasy as that's the only place they can play it.

@Wiiiiiiii Of course they have a plan. You really think Microsoft, one of the world's biggest companies, wouldn't have a plan for if a risky deal didn't succeed?

Agree with the article: if this deal doesn't go through I'd like to see focus and management and real zest going into the large numbers of teams they have already bought. They have the staff and studios to make much more compelling content far more often than they do, so I'd like to see those resources nurtured and fed to be the best of the best.
As a developer I very much liked Microsofts 'hands off' approach with the teams they worked with, it was chill. But it it wasn't and isn't productive.

@Lightning720
Yeah, you're right👍

After the last generation, and the rumours that Microsoft was close to throwing in the towel, I can see the failure of this deal may actually see them call it a day. Right now, sales of the Xbox are stalling, and the PlayStation is romping away with record sales. The whole idea of this acquisition was to bolster Game Pass, bring in fresh subscribers and sell more consoles. Without this deal, the Xbox will lag still further behind, and there is a strong chance that the development costs of a future console would not see a return on the investment as they simply would not sell sufficient consoles. Already this generation some games are skipping the Xbox in favour of the PlayStation, and if the ratio of players on the PlayStation, compared to the Xbox, increases still further, still more developers will do the same, and that will sound the death-knell of the Xbox. I know this all sounds very apocalyptic, but the process of developing a new consoles will likely have already started, and Microsoft will be crunching the numbers as we speak. With the ABK acquisition, they could probably have made it work. Without it, I have my doubts...

@BRT15 no I rather Ubisoft catalog

@Fiendish-Beaver As long as they are making a lot of money, which they definitely are, I can't see them throwing in the towel anytime soon.

They are currently, @Lightning720, but if more and more developers decide to skip the Xbox, and if all the 'good' exclusive games are on the PlayStation as a consequence, the money they make will begin to dwindle. If Microsoft are not in a good place at the end of this generation, then still more people will opt out of the Xbox. Xbox is already in a bit of a rough place when compared to the PlayStation, and if they cannot improve their lot, then they'll simply give up...

@Fiendish-Beaver Yet they've just had their 2nd best Q3. Your theory is completely and utterly hypothetical and isn't very helpful. It's like saying "what if PS5s start hurting people". That obviously would be bad for business, but that isn't what is happening at the moment, so it isn't exactly right to make theories based on it.

@Bleachedsmiles : I haven't used Microsoft's streaming platform for a while either, but I found it was dependent on whether or not I was using a wired connection. I saw in the news yesterday that Tencent now ranks number one in the world as a cloud technology provider though.

When I read it'll help no one but themselves. Yet I see gamepass having a hard time with 3rd party. While Sony is just gifted its really hard to understand the notion of "it'll only help themselves" isn't that what everyone is doing?

@Kaloudz Lol, "the Nickelback of the gaming space". That made my day,

The worst news out of this is that it will still be months maybe years of fighting for this deal. It will be a very long time before this deal is officially dead or approved.

I wouldn't expect any square or sega sized deals for the foreseeable future.

@Lightning720 Your comment is spot on. It's clear a lot of people in the comment sections have no idea what they're talking about and think they know better than a trillion dollar company.

A couple of days ago most of you were convinced that the deal is in the bag. Goes to show none of you have any idea as to what you're even talking about.

Even now the comments are mostly ridiculous. "They should buy Sega", "they should get cod Exclusivity". "They should partner with Activision on Game pass".

None of us know what they are planning to do in the future. It's very unlikely that this deal has any sort of bright future for Xbox. This could have negative implications for the Xbox brand or it could be turned into a positive where Xbox decide to focus on what they have at home and stop the ridiculous shopping spree.

Only time will tell, one thing is for sure, it's a trillion dollar company trying to make even more money, they are not in a school playground where they will decide to take revenge on Sony by getting some sort of cod exclusivity.

Whatever happens there was always a $3 billion deal for actiblizzard. Does that pay for some exclusive gamepass deal. Also the sticking point was around cloud gaming so make this as robust as possible with some amazing day one releases so that the do what sony do with exclusives create a supply and demand scenario that game pass will be talked above xbox as thia is the brand to push for using console, smart tv and pc. This will be the way forward.

How about investing in their 25 ish studios. Tired of the constant buying out

I personally don't care that much. Microsoft can pay ActBliz to have Call of Duty as exclusive or troll Sony by releasing an inferior version of the game on PlayStation platforms. In a more serious tone it is not easy for an American company to go buy a Japanese company like Sega. Although if this happens and MS releases consoles with the Sega branding I will run and swim to Japan to get one

At this point the Xbox division is being run like mid 90s Sega without the great games lol

I could see Microsoft using this money to buy up loads of smaller studios. I mean that would honestly strengthen them more anyways, and they could sort of pull the rug out from under Sony, taking a great deal of AA and Indie content away from Playstation. Since it's small acquisitions the regulators would be powerless, and considering Sony's market lead, Microsoft could do a whole heck of a lot of acquisitions before their dominance could come into question.

One totally off the wall but not totally off the wall path would be to REALLY shake up the business, work with Valve, put Steam on Xbox. One could say "why would they do that" but they already kind of talked about opening the platform to another store. Making Xbox an actual open platform with PC storefronts may not be the most immediately profitable path, but it would be a nuclear option to suddenly and irrevocably change the console space for good, and expand the PC market, that wouldn't actually work against them and would throw PS, Nintendo, and even other cloud vendors for a loop. And I think Gabe also wants to watch the world burn at this point, he might be up for it just for the lulz even at a low revenue share. It depends how much MS wants to profit of storefront sales vs how much MS wants to become a preeminent platform for gaming.

Likely? No. But it would be a very interesting disruptive idea.

@awp69 Or buy senators to crack open the exclusivity deals of the gaming industry and end them for good. I kinda like that one better. Whenever possible I'd rather fight fire with a hose than fire.

This really shouldn't change a thing, except maybe reinforce the idea that MS needs to focus harder on getting more quality games out on a consistent basis.

@Bleachedsmiles
Thats the only way like i said 1st they should make a team of auditors that monitor the development progress and employees productivity!
2nd is buying 2 or 3 studios (Asobo plz)
3rd: create a supporting studio that support teams in need and also advice game changes
4th is fighting fire with fire throw money to game studios to make some 3rd party exclsuives

@grumpypotato On one hand you want aggressive, on the other hand you point out that a $70b unprecedented acquisition in the industry was Phil's idea. What is more aggressive than that?

I think more than anything else they simply need a cohesive strategy. They keep hitting a solid strategy then changing it for a new strategy all the time and starting from nothing. They were on fire until the ABK announcement though. At that point they just went completely limp. Probably intentionally to appease CMA, which has backfired very badly.

@Chaudy Sadly it mostly shows that people in gaming comment sections have much greater idea of what they're talking about than the CMA and other appointed/elected officials do. Even most of the Push comments, though I disagree with many, are coming from relevant points of argument. The CMA's verdict has as much valid relevance as warning that a house in Ohio is too close to sea level.

@Kaloudz "Xbox has become the Nickelback of the gaming space. "

.................

Free Xbox, just pay shipping, who wants an Xbox?!

@Lightning720 @Widey85 If you drop a PS5 on your toe it would hurt quite a lot. Also the haptic triggers really hurt my joints.

Why do people think Sega might be for sale ? Sega is as strong now as they were in the MD days. At this point I have more faith in a Dreamcast 2 than I do another Xbox console generation.

@NEStalgia I think by and large, this is just a general MS problem. You can't get too invested in any sort of hardware MS makes because they will just drop support for it out the wild blue yonder. I really think Nadella is great for MS, but I'm getting the gist that the dude is way too in love with cloud everything. He doesn't really want to sell hardware or even software for that matter. He wants to sell services. I really think that's his end game for basically everything.

I really think something is functionally kinda wrong in the Xbox division. It's like we've discussed a dozen times. It seems like everyone at MS is just constantly debating which direction Xbox is going, and no one really seems to know for sure. I think the fact MS was willing to address seemingly any console concerns, yet then were maybe playing the cloud cards close to their chest, really says to me that my initial thoughts of the entire thing being a massive cloud play were always right. imo ABK was always going to be one step closer to turning the Xbox brand into a service, rather than a console fighting force. It really might be best if MS just hunkers down and cooks with what they've got for a while. Get those ducks in a row and then go from there. I think this has been the worst Xbox news month seriously probably since the Xbone was unveiled.

@SplooshDmg Yeah, I can't really tell who's fighting what in what direction but there does seem to be just internal confusion. You're right about Nadella and services, but, at the same time I don't think Xbox has quite the same position as, say, Zune or Winphone that was like 7 years late to the market after the key players were already established, it's been around for 23 years now and is still one of the key players already in the market, it's not a flash in the pan experiment they just drop out of the blue, either. But at the same time they don't seem to know what to do with it.

I honestly can't quite say "cloud" is the future or present of Xb either. While they may be the front of cloud for now, they're nowhere even remotely close to having their whole store or library on their cloud catalogue and they're not even rumored to be doing so soon. I'm sure they expect that to be the future, but it still only matters if they have an ecosystem to get on the cloud. Subscription is one thing, cloud is another thing, yet most of what they offer, and will offer still aren't even either, which makes the cloud-cloud-cloud push awkward. Cloud is still in beta for crying out loud.

I'd certainly like to see them just stick with what they've got right now, I don't see them NOT going on an acquisition spree though regardless. And after how this news cycle has gone, they still need some sort of mic drop announcement pulled from their sphincters that changes the narrative again. If they can't have verticality, then they can have disruption on their side still.

@NEStalgia Yeah, I'm not saying they are going to just close up shop, but I think this merger failing is going to create a lot of discussions at HQ about the future of the brand. Xbox is still making money (we think?). However, it seems like PC Game Pass is where a lot of the growth is still coming from. It seems like everything on the console side is just stagnating.

I'm really, really not trying to punch down at the Xbox consoles, but I honestly think the situation right now is maybe worse than the Xbone was at this point in its life. I'm not sure if games like Avowed or Hellblade will be enough to jump start some new console sales, not unless MS can learn how to actually market their product. Sony didn't release a total dumpster fire like the PS3 this time around. MS wasn't handed the ace in the hole like they were with the 360. They're going to have to make some effort to convince people to buy these things.

The entire situation seems pretty grim from where I sit. It doesn't look like a single thing is working on their end, outside of PC players signing up for Game Pass. I think they really just need to cut this deal off and pay the $3 billion. Just think. That's the cost of something like 15-20 expensive AAA developments. Just gone in a flash. Wasted 18 months spinning their wheels on this, lit some money on fire, and nothing to show for it except the reputation as the company that failed to monopolize the industry. I really think it's best they lay low and just cook with what they've got for a while.

@SplooshDmg To be fair the merger hasn't failed yet, I think it all hinges on EU at this point. FTC will ever hold through the courts. Even it it hast to got to SCOTUS it'll go in MS favor no matter what. If CMA is literally the only objector on Earth and even China approves MS leapfrogging Tencent, UK just looks stupid and may or may not have to ban candy crush to protect UK citizens, which, honestly, sounds like a good plan.

If EU follows UK, it's over and then, yeah this all matters.

Console stagnating, I still can't tell if that's a problem or a strategy that backfired to please CMA still. They didn't produce stock, they didn't market it, they didn't have games for it, Sony did all the above...like....of course it stagnated. I just can't tell if they shot themselves in the foot to look like they'd been mugged or if they just aim like a stormtrooper.

I still don't think the Series consoles started bad at all, it was a very solid start. They just stopped, completely, with the ABK merger like that was the key to the castle. Combined with Sony flooding the market with inventory, it went really really badly. IDK that it's as bad as X1 at this point though. X1 didn't relaly turn around until the last 2-3 years. It could become as bad if they don't do something to turn it around though, and Redfall is absolutely posolutely not the thing t hat will do it, at all. Just like the BC push, the GP launch, they need something to kickstart interest rapidly. Steam on Xbox, all first party games are included in Happy Meals, and include 2 hours with a Vegas hooker, ANYTHING to be relevant again.

I don't think laying low is going to help them either though. No question this deal if it indeed fails is a total trainwreck that annihilated their momentum. But I think laying low just keeps them down. They got back on the map being bold, they have to be bold to get back on the map. I don't mean buying Sega. I mean making Xbox disruptive again. If Steam on Xbox, or the free hookers or whatever they give away costs them $70b or $120b or $500b it's better value than what happened with this ABK mess. It doesn't really matter if they push on console or push on PC, but they need to push both to push whichever one they care about. IMO Xbox gaming going down would hurt Windows in general, which then hurts dev tools which then hurts cloud, and that's why Xbox existed to begin with. Focusing on integrating PC and console entirely would be smart. They've lost mobile if they can't get King, they need to let dream go and focus on the smaller market. Apple and Amazon own them there now and they can't change it.

Take the money and shore up your first party line up and actually do some dirty work instead of buying the competition.

Make Bethesda work on ES6 quicker by hiring more talent and get one of your studios to make a Fallout and not worry if it pisses of Bethesda, who cares you own them.

Xbox again fumbling the bag and its first party line up. Another gen going to waste if this doesn't change. Once again I ask, in the last 15yrs, when has xbox been good?

@NEStalgia If I were a betting man, I'd bet my bottom dollar that the EU does not approve. There were all these whispers of the FTC approving, then lawsuit. The news yesterday was the CMA approving, blocked. I just don't think for a second right now the EU will think anything different.

I have no idea. I do think Xbox benefited from a lack of PS5's available to buy. But I'm open to self-sabotage conspiracies when it comes to this. Everything seemed to be going fine until ABK rolled along, then everything went sideways.

When I say lay low, I'm kinda more implying that they need to just get a grip on what they already have. Redfall is releasing to little fanfare, mostly because it's probably barely done, if done at all. Everything is delayed or MIA. They have more than enough IP and studios to work with right now. They would do themselves a favor to actually convince consumers they can do something with those before deciding they need to take on another fifteen studios. Xbox is a product people know they can't really count on, and I think a lot of that is by MS's own doing. They really need to get that under control first.

@BAMozzy If the deal doesn’t go through ABK can’t point the blame at Sony as they are not the reason the deal has been blocked. Sony may have protested against the merger but they didn’t help block it. Plus even if ABK gave the marketing rights for CoD to Xbox and even put it on Game Pass day one, it will most likely not make a difference as many of the copies will be sold on PS even without all the marketing.

If the merger doesn’t happen at all then I really think MS should purchase Square Enix or Sega more for Japanese gamers to boost its Xbox brand over there and one or two big players like EA, Ubisoft or Take Two.

@SplooshDmg Just today Microsoft announced a great plan to make Xbox more appealing.

Appealing. Because they're appealing. The thing. Appealing it. Get it......loooooooonnnng siiiiighhhh

I honestly kind of hope EU blocks only because it will just take this thing out to the barn and put it out of its miersy before it ruins things more. If they approve MS has to spend a year keeping up their contract and trying to get it through. If EU blocks they really just have to stop, right now, and move on.

I absolutely think self-sabotage is part of it. Honestly both MS and PS were sabotaging themselves until January when PS suddenly just opened up and went full force. I do find it kind of weird how that played out. MS had no choice but to hobble themselves particularly for CMA. If we think back to before this was announced MS was really going full speed, things were going from strength to strength and XB looked great going forward. The plan, not just the first party games, but even GP's rollout, the features, the announcements, the advertising, even just Phil doing interviews and hyping the base....it all just stopped. Completely just stopped dead. That can't be a coincidence.

Yeah, I just don't think working with what they have is enough right now. If they need more games faster, they have to get them from somewhere, not 3 years from now. But like with BC they could make platform features that change the narrative for them. They really just need a narrative change. After a year of "we're waiting for CoD' going nowhere, they need a major narrative change, not just more timely delivery of Contraband.

@NEStalgia @SplooshDmg that isn’t a coincidence. Their energy and money is going into the deal. Now to what extent could be argued but I’m fairly certain part of the marketing budget is going towards those ads in the UK trying to convince people the deal is good.

Either way even if the EC doesn’t block it. They need to refocus again on the brand. They can’t keep limping Xbox along.

Xbox should be creating compelling content and driving up its engagement numbers with there own first party studios not just because this deal hasn’t gone through.

@NEStalgia Yeah, zero question. If EU blocks, they have to just let this go and get back to business as normal. What I think it all amounts to is, they've totally screwed up. They put a crap load of eggs in this ABK basket, then all the ABK chickens got avian flu and they're now deceased, leaving MS holding the basket with what few eggs are actually in it.

That's the thing. I don't think buying more studios gets them more games faster. We're already looking at the studios they've bought and there's few games to be found. Between contractual agreements and screwed up dev cycles, buying more doesn't seem to fix the present, but maybe the future. The problem is we're in the future now and little to nothing is fixed. I don't know what the answer is.

@SplooshDmg Yeah, they really just banked on abk going through. I honestly doubt they had a plan for it not going through because they really wasn't a valid case against it. The results are just bizarre all around. Idk if abk would have made xb better but that's what they planned on. That's like 20 gp games now gone.

@mousieone energy and money yes, but more than that I still think they TRIED to sabotage their brand because their whole argument has been their weak position. Now the problem is they created the weak position to match the argument and they gained nothing

@SplooshDmg =p I won’t let you ignore me

@NEStalgia the earnings call was actually positive. They had their second best quarter for content abs services ever. While that was driven by GP that also means the game sales they get must be doing well as well. The only thing causing a loss was the hardware. And next quarter they aren’t forecasting as bad as they did for this one. That tells me they know what’s driving this bus. They have their hands off the wheel but to what degree is the issue.

@mousieone Sorry, I was standing at the pharmacy playing Star Rail on my phone. I'm... Distracted. By... Microtransactions.

How sad is it when they are advertising their merger like mad, and not their games and services? Really. Someone make that make sense.

@NEStalgia @SplooshDmg https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/microsoft-is-running-full-page-ads-in-uk-papers-promoting-its-activision-blizzard-merger-plans/

Yeah it doesn’t make sense it can’t. They marketing that but not Xbox. Hmmm?

@mousieone I thought it was second best 3rd quarter ever? Which 3rd quarter is the post holiday slump usually. But it does show that there is some benefit to pushing subs because odds are it's just revenue you'll see all year long, rather than just big bursts when a new game releases. So, there is that.

Good article. I'm genuinely worried the Xbox division might get swallowed up or otherwise disbanded by Microsoft if they don't get some wins in the near to mid-term future, meaning in the next 10 to 15 years. Not anytime soon, but eventually. Don't want to come off to be saying the sky is falling on the back of one bad piece of news. Part of my worry comes from Xbox having come extremely close to this outcome on at least two occasions in the past, supposedly. I want Xbox to thrive so we all keep getting good games.

One point of contention though:

"Phil Spencer has gone on record to say that Xbox's future doesn't rely on this ActiBlizz deal, and we have no reason to doubt him and the team right now!"

Well I admire your positivity, but I have every reason to doubt Phil Spencer. He is a cheerleader for his company like any CEO, of course he will say that. It has no merit whatsoever, just PR. And it's not up to him anyways, it's up to his bosses. He answers to the board of directors.

@Moonglow

I really don't know about whether their decision to block the merger was fair or done in good faith. I'm just ignorant to the process and legal aspects of it and hesitant to even comment on it for that reason.

What I can say is Microsoft can compete with Sony without any acquisition - they just have to make good games. If they do that, consistently and over a long enough period of time, they will be the new market leader guaranteed. They sort of did this during the 360 generation for a minute. The proven method is to release good games. Sony is not some indomitable, untouchable market leader. And Microsoft doesn't need to reinvent the wheel to beat them, they just need to put out a great product. That's it. I feel this is a simple truth which has been overlooked or at least overshadowed by talks of mergers and streaming, etc. None of this feels that complicated in theory.

@SplooshDmg sure that’s probably it, but still it grew even when they forecasted a drop. And that’s over all their third quarters. There are some charts on install base that you Mr accountant would understand better but it wasn’t terrible on that area. Again, I think they know who’s driving the bus and how to get back on the road. I think a lot of that has to do with supply which is low despite what people think. There are people who watch this stuff and the stock is the issue. Not the only one clearly but one of the bigger ones.

I think that’s because they make too many XSS. Now of course then there is marketing but that’s being spent on the ads for the ABK deal.

So I dunno. Maybe it’s incompetence or maybe it’s because they want to appear weak. Maybe it’s neither. But I’d just love ABK not to be a factor, so we can see.

Alright MS can confirm Elder scrolls 6 and fallout 5 won't be releasing on PS

@Sebatrox highly doubt it, japanese government won't allow foreign companies buying their studios.

@Kaloudz ROFL great comparison. Nickelback gets so much hate but they have some solid tunes. But they need to just compete now. I'm treating this deal as dead and if the EU wants to play as a necromancer and bring it back to life then do be it.... but it's dead now

@UnlimitedSevens Yeah the cma reasoning doesn't have and appearance of sensibility. Not sure if they completely have no idea what the industry is still, or if it's flimsy cover to protect Sony payors but move the blame off them. 50/50. It's extremely off base. But incompetence and corruption smell the same in government.

We'll know if eu approves that something is really fishy in the UK though.

@mousieone Stock absolutely is a factor, partly because so much of their chipsets go to the cloud racks but they still very much have a marketing and brand gap beyond uk ads for the Merger. Sony games aren't any more amazing than ms games but they've convinced people they're on another tier. That goes a long way for a long time.

I'm pretty sure chatgpt is driving the bus and everyone is hoping it's not just better at pretending not to be a sociopath than Tay.

That's good they're doing better than expected in software and services though. That's unexpected. The question though is how much worse are they doing then Sony in terms of how much or little of the market they have as far as software support goes.

If the were smart, getting Sega as a sort of second party like square is for Sony wouldn't be a bad plan. They have a very long tight friendship there

All that said if after all this Sony does by a publisher and gets away with it, I I will completely melt down.

@mousieone I've looked at the financial stuff, and the MAUs and stuff are pretty good. However, the thing is that their revenue includes everything from an Xbox console, to PC Game Pass, to Steam, to Minecraft on an iPhone. When you look at the revenue they are pulling from so many places and compare to what Sony or Nintendo is pulling largely from just consoles, it's a pretty enormous gap as far as what Xbox consoles are maybe pulling on their own. I think MS is running a fairly healthy gaming division, but I'm concerned the console side of that division is supposed to be the flagship and it isn't quite doing what it's supposed to be doing. I'm not sure the whole selling a console thing and play anywhere you want are entirely the most compatible things. The only really problem I see is that flagship console is sort of what is attracting games to the platform, and if that console suffers, I think it's sort of jeopardizing the whole play anywhere thing. It seems a bit of a double ended sword.

If the deal entirely breaks down, all they will have done is tell XBox: You need to go back and make third party exclusivity deals, bad press be damned, in BIG bold letters.

@NEStalgia if it’s Square Enix, not the I think they would, but how do you prove Xbox lost anything?

@SplooshDmg see this why you are one of those big brain people. I see hardware sales bad. Content good. Xbox needs to fix.

Put someone better at studios management.

Let halo die and make the last gears.

And actually compete on AAA level

@mousieone lol true for whatever reason right now. It would be really sad if the bad relationship was because of abk messing up crystal dynamics purchase and then nobody gets anything.

But it's the principle with square that ms the underdog in the market can't buy big things but monopoly Sony could if that happened. It's governments picking the winners openly. Hypocrisy makes me go full hulk smash

@NEStalgia I don’t know. I don’t try to understand politics or what the the overall thinking is. Now O await next month because depending on the WV we may or may not get a resolution. I want a resolution. There is too much drama ;(

With any luck what they should have done, spend far less time and money on exclusivity deals like Sony does, and spend far more time getting their first party studios working! Stop the exodus of high profile staff and for Christ Sake stop the endless game delays. And boost quality.

But it's obvious MS are obsessed with all their product portfolio being offered as a service you subscribe to. They are going to mess up Xbox, again. The 360 was a success because it followed the same plan as PlayStation, exclusive deals.
Ever since they moved to promote multi media and now game services they've messed up.

Can they really not just follow the PS plan? I mean it more then works for them...

Just stop buying every big name under the sun! Just do what Sony does please.. but they won't. However if the EU blocks the deal, which I think they will, then MS will fingers crossed be forced to follow Sonys model. Just like the fantastic Xbox 360 days.

@SplooshDmg I've had time to reflect, I learnt that globally Microsoft Xbox controls 60 to 70% of cloud gaming, and wants ActiBliz, I can totally understand where the CMA are coming from based on that! How MS ever thought they'd get the deal through is beyond me?

I bought Xbox again for State Of Decay, Avowed, Project Zero, Gears of War, where are they??? MIA as you said. MS first party studios seem to be in a mess and all MS are doing is chasing seemingly impossible acquisitions. Yeah it was fun screaming YES COD ON GAME PASS, but then you realise where are all the other games? Oh look Red Fall that's barely done releasing...

The only time Xbox console was remotely successful in the market is when they copied Sonys strategy in the Xbox 360 days. Exclusive deals. Now they have and want Xbox services to be the success. IMO.
They even recently during their earnings announced a huge drop in console sales...

That's why I am thinking of jumping ship, with Sony you know where you are and what games you'll get, with MS you know the games you love and want but have no idea when or if you'll get them. All you know is they want Xbox as a service and to waste billions in giant acquisitions that are blocked unsurprisingly when looked at objectively.

Game Pass is a winner, all they need to do is get first party games on it, and exclusive deals, that's it. But they want that top level income and revenue so want to just buy everyone.

In short, and I hate to say it, sack Spencer, sack the MS studios boss and team, sack Nedala even, and put people in that want exclusive deals and can manage the studios they own already and be laser focussed on.

They should make a new Banjo-Kazooie. If Rare doesn't want to make it, find someone who does. Open a new studio with designers that have experience in 3D platforming games and make a new Banjo or a new 3D platformer. Instead of buying studios, open your own studios. This way MS won't have to worry about regulatory bodies.

According to companiesmarketcap.com

EA is worth 34B

Take2 is worth 20B

So buying them both probably would not be more expensive than buying ABK. And would be a much better move in my opinion. So if this deal falls through maybe it is for the better.

@TheSilverFalcon Japanese laws are completely different that wouldn't be allowed

@S1ayeR74 Yeah, I mean, I was super excited to see Bethesda become Xbox first party, because In my mind it meant more funding for Bethesda equals better games. In reality, we aren't seeing that happen. It's just not. But there is definitely something to that fact that MS already has 60-70% of the cloud market. I think MS knows the console war is forever lost, and they want to quietly sneak in and win the cloud war before it ever starts. 4D chess stuff.

I sacked my XSX and just invested further in the PC I already had. I also bought a PS5. Sony kinda sucks, but it's like you said, you know what you're getting with a PS5. There's no, "Next year is gonna be the year! You'll see!" Every year is basically somewhere been solid and really good consistently.

I'm not really sure who is making the calls on all this stuff, but Nadella is obsessed with cloud everything. Cloud services are MS's bread and butter, along with Windows licensing. I just don't know what anyone working there is doing any more. It's really disappointing, because by this point I feel the triumphant return of Xbox has sort of just floundered out into another gen of mediocrity.

1/2

You're right that things went well in the last quarter, @Lightning720, but that does not mean that that will continue. What you are not factoring in is that Sony has just had a far better quarter. Sales of the Xbox are not just stalling, they are falling. Sales of the PlayStation, on the other hand, are increasing exponentially. What this means is that the 40% gap between Sony and Microsoft will widen still further. At the moment that spread is 70% of gamers own a PlayStation, and just 30% own an Xbox. When PlayStation hit 75%, and Xbox 25%, as is likely on the current trend, developers will increasingly see it as an afterthought to make a game for the Xbox. And what happens when that gap gets wider still? What will be the point in developing a game for the Xbox as a third-party exclusive? There just isn't one, indeed, we're pretty much at that point right now. Not a single AAA third-party exclusive has been on the Xbox thus far this generation. S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2 is likely to be a AA or maybe a AA+ experience at best (judging by the quality of the previous games), and even then Xbox has only managed to lock it down as a 3 month timed exclusive. No one is going to buy an Xbox based on that, but they will buy a PS5 knowing that Sony have secured Final Fantasy as a permeant third-party exclusive. And so it will continue with Sony able to snap up all the quality third-party exclusives for either extended or never ending time periods, and the Xbox will only have those it can develop itself, which at present, they have been pretty shocking at. This means that at some point, Microsoft will look at the gaming landscape and question whether the spiralling costs of making a quality exclusive can be recouped with such a small install-base.

It's pretty much guaranteed that if (and it could well become a big if) Microsoft decide to develop a next generation console to follow our current one, that they will capture an even smaller corner of the market than we currently enjoy because more and more gamers will jump ship to the PlayStation 6 because that will be where all the decent first party AND third-party games are. The cost of developing a new console is eye-watering, and if Xbox is only going to capture 25% or less, of the next generation sales, it is questionable whether they could actually recoup their costs.

I often see people citing the number of studios Xbox has, and how they should expand the studios and make their own quality games, and whilst that would be the ideal, the problem is that those games are required now, not in 5 years time. That is why Microsoft were looking to buy ABK; they would get an immediate influx of quality games and studios, with still more games we don't even know about yet to be released over the next year of two. However, the problem persists, expanding studios means hiring more people, and that costs money. Money that needs to be recouped in game sales or new subscribers. Game development is not cheap, and the investment needs a return, and if there are doubts as to whether the Xbox will even exist in 5 years time, you are unlikely to greenlight that game development, or expand those studios.

2/2 @Lightning720

I keep seeing people going on about Microsoft being a trillion dollar company, and how they are bank-rolling the Xbox, but Microsoft didn't get to where they are now by making poor investments. They made hard-nosed decisions, and at some point (probably in the not too distant future) they will be making the decision whether it is still worth investing in the Xbox, and if the situation does not improve, I can foresee them calling it quits and focussing on where they can make money instead...

@Fiendish-Beaver "where they can make money instead..."

You make it sound as if Xbox doesn't make money. It makes a lot of money.

It does, @Lightning720, at the moment, but as more and more people jump from the Xbox to the PlayStation, so the money they make will dwindle. The costs of creating a new console, running a studio, and developing games is huge. The investment in that is made upfront. To develop a AAA game costs between 80 and 100 million, so for Microsoft to develop 10 (across all their studios) would cost around a billion dollars. The cost of developing a new console is far more. The question will always be, will there be enough purchasers of the next console to recoup the developmental costs, and will they sell sufficient games (or bring in new subscribers to the Game Pass), to recoup the costs. And the answer is more likely to become no the fewer games and gamers the Xbox brand has. Microsoft won't want to spend 100,000,000 NOW on developing a game to come out in 4 or 5 years times, when there just might not be enough people willing to buy the next console in order to play that game (or subscribe to Game Pass) on the Xbox.

@Fiendish-Beaver except a lot of their revenue is up. Microsoft isnt going to ditch a brand that makes them an increasing amount of money, and is a significant reason why they are one of the biggest companies in the world...

I do have to remind myself that random people on the Internet often have no idea about business.

@Titntin Honestly if Xbox properly uses its existing devs and these studios actually release 1 triple-A game every 3 years they will be fine. At this point they just can't see the forest because the trees are blocking their view.
They have the resources and the studios. They could own ABK and Ubisoft both and still be in the same third place if those studios don't actually make games or everything they make has parity over all platforms.

@SplooshDmg I agree, they’ve lost the console war so are trying to corner cloud gaming. Can’t monopolise one market so will try to monopolise another. Just makes Sony and Microsoft out to be as bad as each other in that regard. I wonder how long they would make consoles for? If they invest so much on Xbox being a brand and service on as many devices as possible, will they just ditch the console and maybe just sell a streaming box for cloud gaming?

That’s not what I signed up for.

@Kaloudz again I'm looking at it like it's dead and EU has to bring it back to life or just leave it in the grave. Nothing will happen with the CMA before the EU decision and if they block it then the shareholders of ABK will just take their $3B and it's done n dusted. If they pass it then we get to get excited again. The CMA actually mentioned in a BBC article where Sam's just slammed the UK as a place to invest in that their decision is global and deal can't go through at all. That seems like an overreach and I'm sure they don't want it to be just UK gamers benefiting from their protection while the rest of the world suffers with increased gamepass value. But until EU says otherwise.... we're just poking a corpse with a stick currently.

@Jill_Sandwich they wanted ABK for mobile not cloud. The cloud thing just seems odd. Even now Xbox isn't making money from cloud gaming, it's just a perk of GPU.

@BrilliantBill I agree with you completely.
I believe they have 25 studios to Sonys 24, so they should be able to match the number of releases with effective management.

Even if this deal flops, they have the studios, they have the hardware, they need to use it effectively and continue with the excellent Game Pass and they will be fine..

@Titntin Nicely put!

I don't know why, maybe it was because of the recent news and rumours about "Game So or So not selling well on Xbox", but many people are treating this deal as if Xbox life as a brand depends on it.

I don't see it that way (but anyway, what do I know?), but many people are happy to shout that this will be a killer blow for the Xbox division.

If ABK is out of the question, then they absolutely should go and gobble up other mid-sized companies that make strategic sense. EA, Ubisoft, Take Two, CD PR, and FromSoftware should all get a serious look. None are perfect, but all have valuable IP and talented dev teams.

They also should be looking at more PC-first devs, to beef up PC Game Pass. One that is smaller, but VERY talented is 11 Bit Studios (Frostpunk, Children of Morta, This War of Mine). They've proven they can make great games and optimize them for PC and Xbox consoles. I also think they should pick up Avalance Studios! So many opportunities, and can't wait to see which they pick up. I love Game Pass.

@HarmanSmith
I don't buy the story they are selling either, that Xbox will be doomed if this ABK deal doesn't work out. I think it will definitely alter their path forward, but not that they are going to throw their hands up and sell everything off. It's still profitable to them, and clearly, they have had backup plans for the scenario in which ABK didn't work out. If it were life or death for their brand and plans, Microsoft/Xbox would be shouting from the rooftops. They have other studios they are going to buy instead if this doesn't work out.

@Moonglow I think the summer show will show a lot of what Sonys studios have. It wont be one game.

I also take issue with those that state games will definitely take 5 to 7 years. Some games may take that long, but toolsets are being written and created to speed up the work flow and ensure there is less time between vision and product. UE5 has a whole suite of tools that save a lot of time in a way I never experienced when making titles, and using such an 'off the shelf' engines speeds up work flow dramatically and ensures most of your new hires hit the ground running.

Besides, if you know you need some titles to ship, then surely you design titles that are smaller in scale and therefore easier to deliver in an appropriate time scale? I know from first hand experience that MS don't push, so devs can go slow. It was 13 years ago I know, but it doesn't look like its changed much.

I think in reality, its a bit of both: New teams need time to ramp up AND MS are not good at managing teams to create product.

I genuinely think that some new ideas from MS and they could make games find there way to market much quicker.

Just thinking aloud though, I'm not privy to how any of those studios are doing.

Deal or no deal, they have good teams and Xbox can do fine.

I think Microsoft and xbox had a backup plan all along. These are very smart business men & women ...they probably knew beforehand about the FTC and the UKs bullSh!t . I really believe in Phil Spencer and trust he's gonna continue taking Xbox too new heights. It's the devs that need too get their stuff in order and start releasing good quality games for Xbox

@Kaloudz i mean everyone thought that the CMA was going to approve the day before they didn't so really I'm not taking any previous logic into account here. Basically its dead until the EU goes full necromancer on it.

I like their comments afterwards that their decision is global and it can't go through without their approval. Hopefully it rubs the EU in the wrong way. It's all just hopes n dreams now.

But really they need to focus on their actual games because it really does feel like this deal has just taken all of their attention away from what they are actually supposed to be doing. Let the lawyers lawyer and focus on your own stuff. Give booty a call and ask him what's going on, when have you actually done something? Can I have proof? Lol.

@Krazee5255 i like Phil, seems like a great dude and is clearly a gamer. Without any actual knowledge of how he manages I get the impression that he's too soft n cuddly n needs someone sterner to help with actually running things. This isn't a video game commune, it's a business with customers to please. Glad the devs have kombucha on tap and all but please get your games out polished and in a timely manner. Again.... just getting the impression they are very happy go lucky and it's why things are like they are. Don't go full Kotik on them....but halfway between the two.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001lbd3

Full interview with Sam's, pretty interesting listen for those interested. More is discussed in there than articles wrote about.

They need to make Indiana Jones exclusive. And they need a killer summer showcase because I'm sick of hearing about Starfield and Redfall all the time.

@awp69 they already did in the 360 days wen the player base was similar. Now Playstation’s player base is far bigger so devs wanna do deals with Sony not MS.